The first goalscorer market is one of the most popular bets at every World Cup because it offers high odds and quick results. At the 2022 tournament, unexpected scorers such as Adrien Rabiot rewarded bettors with much bigger payouts than star forwards would normally offer. The expanded 2026 format — featuring 48 teams and 104 matches — could create even more opportunities for first goalscorer betting, especially in matches between elite nations and weaker opponents.
In this market, you are betting on the player who scores the opening goal of the match. If your player scores later but not first, the bet loses. Because of this, bettors usually focus on strikers, penalty takers, and attacking players expected to dominate weaker defences.
How First Goalscorer Betting Works
You pick one player to score the first goal in a specific match. If your player scores before anyone else, the bet wins. If another player scores first, the bet loses regardless of whether your player scores later. If the match ends 0-0 or your player does not score at all, the bet loses.
Most bookmakers also offer void rules for first goalscorer: if your player does not start the match, the bet is typically void and your stake returned. Check the terms before placing, as policies vary between bookmakers.
First Goalscorer vs Related Markets
| Market | What it means | Typical odds vs First Goalscorer |
| First goalscorer | Your player scores first | Highest (most specific) |
| Last goalscorer | Your player scores last | Similar to first goalscorer |
| Anytime goalscorer | Your player scores at any point | Lower (easier to achieve) |
| To score 2+ goals | Your player scores a brace or more | Higher (less likely) |
Anytime goalscorer is the lower-risk version of first goalscorer. It pays less but is easier to win since you only need your player to score at any point in the match. First goalscorer pays more because the timing constraint is strict. Many bettors use anytime goalscorer for short-priced favourites and first goalscorer for slightly longer-priced picks where the extra odds make the timing risk worthwhile.
What Makes a Good First Goalscorer Pick?
The first goalscorer market rewards specific knowledge. These are the factors that separate a well-reasoned pick from a guess.
Primary striker status
Goals cluster around the player leading the line for their team. Penalty takers score first goals more often than any other position because they have guaranteed opportunities from the spot. Before placing a first goalscorer bet, confirm who starts and who takes penalties. An unused substitute cannot score first; a confirmed starter who also takes penalties has two routes to goal.
Team strength and match context
A striker for a dominant team in a mismatched group-stage fixture has more goal opportunities than one for an underdog playing defensively. Mbappe vs a weaker side is a different proposition to Mbappe vs Argentina. Filter your first goalscorer picks by the specific match, not just the player’s overall quality.
Early goal tendency
Some players score early in matches more often than others. Strikers who press high and attack from kick-off, or teams that start at high tempo, produce more first goals in the opening 20-30 minutes. This is harder to track but worth factoring in for players known for explosive starts.
Avoid second strikers and wingers at short prices
Wingers and second strikers can score first goals but at lower frequency than the central forward. Backing a winger at 8.00 when the central striker is at 6.00 is rarely good value. The exception is a genuine chance-creator who scores regularly from wide positions, like Lamine Yamal for Spain or Vinicius Junior for Brazil.
Best First Goalscorer Picks for 2026
The following players stand out based on their role, team strength and expected match difficulty. Odds are approximate and sourced from current market prices; they will change as the tournament begins.
| Player | Team | Approx. odds* | Case for |
| Kylian Mbappe | France | 7.00 | Tournament favourite, primary striker, penalty taker |
| Harry Kane | England | 8.00 | 2018 Golden Boot winner, consistent scorer, England penalty taker |
| Erling Haaland | Norway | 15.00 | 55 goals in 49 Norway apps; boom-or-bust given tough group |
| Lamine Yamal | Spain | 21.00 | Spain projected highest-scoring team; deep run likely |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | Spain | 19.00 | First-choice Spain striker; Spain face weaker group opponents |
| Vinicius Junior | Brazil | 31.00 | Brazil project strong goal return; value at this price |
| Salem Al-Dawsari | Saudi Arabia | 60.00+ | Saudi’s main attacking threat; Gulf audience interest |
*Odds are approximate and subject to change. Always check current prices at your bookmaker before placing.
Mbappe: the straightforward case
Mbappe is the consensus favourite for the Golden Boot and the most likely first goalscorer in any France match. He scored eight goals at Qatar 2022, including the hat-trick in the final. France are tournament favourites, meaning Mbappe will play more matches than almost anyone else. At around 7.00 for the Golden Boot, his per-match first goalscorer price of around 5.00-6.00 against weaker opponents represents fair rather than outstanding value, but the reliability is there.
Haaland: the boom-or-bust option
Erling Haaland has scored 55 goals in 49 appearances for Norway and is their undisputed first-choice striker and penalty taker. His numbers are remarkable: 16 goals in eight qualifying matches, 27 goals in the 2025-26 Premier League season. The problem is Norway’s group. Drawn alongside France and Senegal, Norway face a difficult path through the group stage. If they exit early, Haaland’s goal tally is capped. If they somehow advance, his odds become very attractive. He is a high-upside gamble rather than a safe pick.
Lamine Yamal and Oyarzabal: the Spain angle
Spain project as one of the highest-scoring teams in the tournament according to pre-tournament models. They face Cape Verde and two other manageable group opponents, giving their forwards multiple opportunities to score. Lamine Yamal, the Barcelona winger, is Spain’s most creative player and a consistent scorer. Mikel Oyarzabal, the first-choice striker, is the more direct route to first goalscorer given his central position. Either is worth considering for Spain’s group matches.
Salem Al-Dawsari: the Gulf interest pick
For Kuwait bettors with interest in Arab football, Salem Al-Dawsari is the most prominent Arab striker at the tournament. He scored the famous winner against Argentina in 2022 and remains Saudi Arabia’s primary attacking threat. At long odds for first goalscorer, he offers value in matches where Saudi are competitive. Saudi Arabia vs Cape Verde in Group H is the fixture where he would be most interesting as a pick.
First Goalscorer in Combination Bets
First goalscorer selections can be combined with match winners in same-game accumulators at most bookmakers. Backing Mbappe as first goalscorer combined with France to win is a natural pairing that boosts the return without adding much independent risk. If Mbappe scores first, France winning is already the most likely outcome.
Be careful combining first goalscorer with over/under markets. If you back a player as first goalscorer and also back Over 2.5 goals, both selections are correlated: more goals means more chances for your player to score, but the first goalscorer bet is settled on the first goal only. The two markets are independent in that sense.
Bet on First Goalscorer at Betfinal
Betfinal offers first goalscorer, anytime goalscorer and related player markets across all 104 World Cup matches. At Betfinal, the Top Scorer outright market works alongside per-match betting: place a $20 outright bet on your chosen player and receive a $5 Freebet every time that player scores a goal, adding extra value alongside your match-by-match selections.
Place your first goalscorer bet on any World Cup match at Betfinal and earn points for the $25,000 Leaderboard. Every bet counts, win or lose.
See our full Betfinal World Cup 2026 review or visit Betfinal’s World Cup promotions page for all goalscorer markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if there are no goals in the match?
If the match finishes 0-0, all first goalscorer bets lose. There is no first goal to settle on. This is one of the reasons anytime goalscorer is lower-risk: it still loses in a 0-0 result, but at least requires only one goal at any point rather than specifically the first.
Does the first goalscorer bet void if my player does not start?
At most bookmakers, yes. If your selected player does not start the match (comes on as a substitute), the bet is void and your stake is returned. Some bookmakers require the player to take part in the match at all; others only void if they do not start. Check the terms before placing.
Can I back the same player for first goalscorer in every match?
Yes. You can place individual first goalscorer bets on the same player match by match. This is different from the Golden Boot outright market, which covers the whole tournament. Match-by-match first goalscorer bets are settled after each game.
Are penalty goals counted for first goalscorer?
Yes. A penalty goal counts as a regular goal for first goalscorer purposes. This is why penalty takers are valuable in this market: they have a high-probability route to goal from the spot. Goals in extra time count, but goals in penalty shootouts do not.
Which position scores most first goals at the World Cup?
Central strikers and second strikers score the majority of first goals. Penalty takers also have an advantage. Wingers and attacking midfielders score first goals less frequently on average, although some players who operate across the front line can be exceptions.
Last updated: June 2026
